In April 1943, a Spanish fisherman retrieved the body of a drowned man, identified as British Major William Martin. Chained to Major Martin's wrist was a briefcase full of sensitive documents, including plans for an allied invasion on the Balkan coast. Nazi-friendly Spanish authorities leaked these invasion plans to the Germans, who had previously suspected Sicily as the most likely invasion point. In response, Hitler moved troops and naval forces to Greece.
History buffs already recognize this as the story of Operation Mincemeat, one of the most successful deceptions of the war. To make a long story short: it was all fake. "Major Martin" was never a real person: the corpse was actually that of a homeless man who had died on the streets of London. The body was dressed up as a military officer and all the documents in the briefcase were fabrications. The ruse achieved its goal: setting the scene for a successful allied invasion of Sicily.
Now let us consider the case of Jack Teixera's leaks of classified military documents on Discord.
Prigozhin said that if Ukraine’s commanders withdrew their soldiers from the area around Bakhmut, he would give Kyiv information on Russian troop positions, which Ukraine could use to attack them.... according to previously unreported U.S. intelligence documents leaked on the group-chat platform Discord.
Source: Washington Post: Wagner chief offered to give Russian troop locations to Ukraine, leak says
Prigozhin, of course, denied having had any contact with Ukrainian authorities. And with Operation Mincemeat in mind, I'm prepared to believe him. Ukraine is fighting against two armies: the regular Russian army, and Prigozhin's mercenaries, the wagner group. Tricking these two forces into fighting each other instead of Ukraine would be the crown jewel of psyops. It seems too good to be true... so maybe it is. As mad as Ukrainian and American leaders are (or pretend to be), I don't see anything in the leaks so damaging as to directly put Ukrainian troops in danger. The major damage seems to have been done to the trust between Putin and Prigozhin.
Prigo has claimed that Russian forces attacked his troops, and the Russian Defense Ministry has denied it. It could be that Russia did turn on Prigozhin after the Teixera leaks eroded their faith in him. But after Wagner's success in Bakhmut, I'm inclined to disbelieve that they'd be so ready to discard him.
More likely to me is that the attacks were carried out by Ukrainian special forces or Russian rebel forces (if they really are distinct entities). Prigo certainly seems pretty confident that his troops were attacked by the regular army:
He claimed that the chief of the General Staff, Gen. Valery Gerasimov, scrambled warplanes to strike Wagner's convoys, which were driving alongside ordinary vehicles.
Prigozhin said Wagner field camps in Ukraine were struck by rockets, helicopter gunships and artillery fire on orders from Gerasimov following a meeting with Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, at which they decided to destroy Wagner.
Prigozhin claimed that Shoigu went to the Russian military headquarters in Rostov-on-Don personally to direct the strike and then "cowardly" fled.
Source: NPR: Wagner leader says his forces have entered Russian city of Rostov with no resistance
One has to ask: how does Prigozhin know who was responsible for these attacks? Maybe they intercepted radio communications, or... found secret documents on a corpse?
If I weren't confident that no more than a handful of people read my blog, I wouldn't post this at all for fear of upsetting the operation. However, since the previously-quoted article says that Wagner has captured the Russian city of Rostov, I'd say it's too late for this blogger to have any effect. The bait's already been "swallowed rod, line and sinker."
Well, it looks like I had it wrong. Now it seems like Prigozhin was feeling backed into a corner after Putin attempted to force his soldiers to sign contracts with the regular army. Worried about losing control over his troops, I believe he staged the attack on his troops to justify the march on the capital. He said they'd had "dozens" of fighters but the video he posted of the aftermath of the "attack" doesn't show much damage at all. Indeed, it looks like a false flag that he didn't put too much effort into.
That said, the Teixera leaks still seem too good to be true. We probably won't know for many years, if ever.
^ 2023/06